DTN Midday Livestock Comments 12/08 11:47
The Cattle Complex Finally Sees Support in Thursday's Market
The cash cattle market has a few bids being offered in the South, but
otherwise the market remains extremely quiet.
DTN Livestock Analyst
Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading higher into
Thursday's afternoon as the market finally sees support from traders. The cash
cattle market is hoping to improve from Wednesday's light trade in the North
where cattle sold $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average, but time will
tell. March corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is up
$8.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 177.22 points.
The live cattle market is trading higher into Thursday's afternoon as the
market is pleased with the fact that boxed beef prices closed higher Wednesday
afternoon and that prices are mixed in Thursday's midday report. The live
cattle contracts are trading higher into Thursday's afternoon as the market has
found support technically and hopes that cash prices grow stronger as the day
trades on. December live cattle are up $0.47 at $152.40, February live cattle
are up $0.42 at $153.97 and April live cattle are up $0.47 at $158.10. A few
cash cattle bids are on the table in Kansas and Texas at $152 to $154. A light
to moderate trade was reported in Nebraska and Iowa Wednesday with dressed
deals marked at mostly $247, $2 lower than the previous week's weighted
Beef net sales of 1,600 mt for 2022 were primarily for China (4,800 mt,
including decreases of 300 mt), Japan (1,600 mt, including decreases of 1,100
mt), Mexico (900 mt, including decreases of 100 mt), Canada (500 mt, including
decreases of 200 mt), and Taiwan (400 mt, including decreases of 200 mt), were
offset by reductions primarily for South Korea (7,900 MT). Net sales of 16,300
mt for 2023 were primarily for South Korea (13,100 mt), Japan (1,300 mt), Hong
Kong (700 mt), China (300 mt), and Guatemala (300 mt). Exports of 16,900 mt
were primarily to South Korea (5,100 mt), Japan (4,300 MT), Mexico (1,900 mt),
China (1,600 mt), and Taiwan (1,300 mt).
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $2.32 ($246.64) and select up $1.52
($221.29) with a movement of 59 loads (33.73 loads of choice, 7.35 loads of
select, 3.59 loads of trim and 13.83 loads of ground beef).
Even with the corn contracts trading mildly higher into Thursday afternoon,
the feeder cattle contracts are breaking out and posting a 65- to 245-point
gain. Feeder cattle traders could be feeling more confident as recent boxed
beef prices have found some support, which could incentivize buyers to restock
their pens as they believe that packer demand will remain. January feeders are
up $2.52 at $182.37, March feeders are up $1.42 at $184.67 and April feeders
are up $1.47 at $188.07. The market won't like pressure the resistance at
$183.77 as it wasn't able to successfully trade consistently above that
threshold when challenged last time.
The lean hog complex is hoping that some of the strong momentum that's
driving cattle prices higher into Thursday's afternoon will spill over into the
lean hog sector but at this point that's yet to happen. December lean hogs are
down $0.80 at $81.57, February lean hogs are down $3.42 at $83.27 and April
lean hogs are down $3.05 at $89.77. Thursday's weakness largely stems from the
fact that Wednesday's afternoon pork cut value closed $5.37 lower, and with
cold storage as plentiful as it is on bellies, the cutout will likely continue
to fact push back.
The projected lean hog index for Dec. 7 is down $0.31 with a weighted
average of $82.47, and the actual index for Dec. 6 is down $0.16 at $82.78. Hog
prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $4.32 with a
weighted average of $80.99, ranging from $80.00 to $85.50 on 3,974 head and a
five-day rolling average of $83.79. Pork cutouts totaled 129.35 loads with
113.30 loads of pork cuts and 16.04 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up
Pork net sales post reductions of 7,900 mt for 2022 resulting in increases
for Mexico (3,100 mt, including decreases of 4,000 mt), China (900 mt,
including decreases of 300 mt), Honduras (200 mt), the Dominican Republic (200
mt, including decreases of 200 mt), and Chile (100 mt), were more than offset
by reductions primarily for Japan (4,400 mt), Australia (3,400 mt), South Korea
(2,300 mt), and Canada (2,200 mt). Net sales of 2,400 mt for 2023 were
primarily for Colombia (1,300 mt), Japan (500 mt), South Korea (200 mt), and
Nicaragua (200 mt). Exports of 32,500 mt were primarily to Mexico (15,900 mt),
China (4,700 mt), Japan (3,300 mt), South Korea (2,100 mt), and Canada (1,900
ShayLe Stewart can be reached firstname.lastname@example.org
Cattlemen are eager for supply and demand mechanics to swing their way, but
the market isn't completely free of hurdles as bearish concerns about the U.S.
and global economies loom. Hear DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart's thoughts
on the 2023 cattle market at the all-virtual DTN Ag Summit on Dec. 12-13. Full
details available at http://www.dtn.com/agsummit
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