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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/16 10:47

   Soybeans Up Double Digits at Midday

   Corn is narrowly mixed, soybeans is 12 to 13 cents higher and wheat is 3 
cents lower to 3 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow up 115 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 0.05 lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mostly 
lower with crude off $0.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are 
mostly higher with gold up $12.00.


   Corn trade is narrowly mixed with steady spread action as we try to 
consolidate the week's gains into the weekend, as nearby demand, Brazil corn 
and the slow start to the U.S. growing season all in focus. Ethanol margins 
should remain stable with the energy complex holding the rally to offset corn 
values. Corn basis continues to hold firm throughout the belt. Double-crop 
progress in Brazil looks to have mixed weather with the dry season approaching 
and surging cash values locally. On the May contract, chart resistance is the 
contract high at $6.01 1/2, with the upper Bollinger Band at $5.96 now just 
above the market, then the 20-day at $5.63 as support.


   Soybeans are 12 to 13 cents higher at midday with trade being carried by 
stronger product values across the board with meal finding buying during the 
day session. Meal is $3.00 to $4.00 higher and oil is 0.85 to 0.95 cent higher. 
NOPA crush was a little short of expectations Thursday with oil stocks lower as 
well. South America is expected to continue harvest progress in Brazil with 
little overall weather change short term, and Argentina looking stable short 
term. The May soybean chart has support at the 20-day at $14.09, which we 
closed just above Thursday with the upper Bollinger Band at $14.43, which we 
are about a dime away from.


   Wheat trade is 3 cents lower to 3 cents higher with support from feed demand 
and concerns about cold weather offsetting rains in the Plains short term. The 
downtrend in the dollar is supportive to buying as well, although it looks to 
be stabilizing after the recent slide. Weather in the Plains has some cold in 
it as well, but threats look limited so far with northwest Kansas to see temps 
just below freezing over the next few days. KC has narrowed back to a 42-cent 
discount to Chicago with Minneapolis 16 cents above Chicago. KC May on the 
chart has support at the 20-day at $5.78 that we held Friday, with $6.09 the 
next level of resistance where we find the upper Bollinger Band, which we are 
just below at midday.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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