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DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 07/15 06:15
Cattle May See Continued Liquidation
Cattle futures were lower right out of the gate on Tuesday and never looked
back. The continued weakness in boxed beef and the prospect of low cash weighed
on the market. Hog futures diverged with strength in the nearby contracts as
the fundamentals are supportive near term.
Robin Schmahl
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Lower Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $275.91 -$0.99*
Hogs: Lower Futures: Higher Lean Equiv: $107.67 -$0.34**
*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer
revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent
changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Traders see little to get excited over in the cattle market. The continued
weakness of boxed beef and the potential for lower cash again this week is
weighing on the market. Another concern developing is the potential for more
cattle to move to feedlots and to the market due to decreasing pasture
conditions in many areas of cattle country. This will be bullish longer term as
the nation's cattle herd will not be rebuilt. Just how long the current
liquidation of cattle futures will continue will depend on demand and whether
packers will be able to operate in the black. Cash cattle trade is expected to
be lower this week with no trade having been reported so far. Boxed beef prices
were lower, with choice down $1.66 and select down $0.76.
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